Matchup Intelligence
Hull City
Nott'm ForestThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 53%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (17%), from expected goals of 0.7 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 38%.
Nott'm Forest carry the heavier absence: 4.9% of their squad weight against Hull City's 1.6%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Hull City 16th in the league, Nott'm Forest 8th of 20.
Expected shapes: Hull City 5-4-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups