Matchup Intelligence
Hull City
Nott'm ForestThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 52%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (14%), from expected goals of 0.9 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.
Hull City carry the heavier absence: 11.5% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 10.3%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Hull City 20th in the league, Nott'm Forest 9th of 20.
Expected shapes: Hull City 5-4-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups