Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
Nott'm ForestThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 54%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (16%), from expected goals of 0.8 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 9.9% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 4.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Aston Villa 20th in the league, Nott'm Forest 8th of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups