Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
Nott'm ForestThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 53%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (14%), from expected goals of 0.8 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 44%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 5.1% and 4.9% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Spurs 7th in the league, Nott'm Forest 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups