Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
Nott'm ForestThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 45%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.0 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 28.5% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 10.3%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and creativity (8th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups