Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
Nott'm ForestThe model sees this close: Sunderland 43%, draw 27%, Nott'm Forest 30%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 4.0% and 4.9% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Sunderland 7th in the league, Nott'm Forest 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups