Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
Nott'm ForestThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 53%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (9%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%.
Sunderland carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 10.3%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Sunderland 15th in the league, Nott'm Forest 8th of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (14th) and ball recovery (15th); weakest on defensive solidity, 16th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups