Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
Nott'm ForestThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 54%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 9.6% and 10.3% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Newcastle 20th in the league, Nott'm Forest 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (11th) and creativity (13th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Predicted Lineups