Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
Nott'm ForestThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 51%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (14%), from expected goals of 0.9 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 46%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 17.9% of their squad weight against Nott'm Forest's 4.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Newcastle 7th in the league, Nott'm Forest 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and ball recovery (14th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups