Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
Nott'm ForestThe model sees this close: Fulham 38%, draw 23%, Nott'm Forest 39%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.7.
Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%.
Nott'm Forest carry the heavier absence: 4.9% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Fulham 6th in the league, Nott'm Forest 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on attacking threat, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups