Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
Nott'm ForestThe model sees this close: Fulham 32%, draw 25%, Nott'm Forest 43%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%.
Nott'm Forest carry the heavier absence: 4.6% of their squad weight against Fulham's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Fulham 1st in the league, Nott'm Forest 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (4th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on defensive solidity, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups