Matchup Intelligence
Everton
NewcastleThe model favours Everton at 60%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (10%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 9.6% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Everton 2nd in the league, Newcastle 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Newcastle 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (11th) and creativity (13th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups