Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
NewcastleThe model favours Ipswich Town at 50%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.1 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 9.6% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 4.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Ipswich Town 1st in the league, Newcastle 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Newcastle 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (6th); weakest on defensive solidity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (11th) and creativity (13th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups