Matchup Intelligence
Hull City
NewcastleThe model sees this close: Hull City 39%, draw 28%, Newcastle 33%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 17.9% of their squad weight against Hull City's 3.8%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Hull City 1st in the league, Newcastle 7th of 20.
Expected shapes: Hull City 5-4-1, Newcastle 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and ball recovery (14th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups