Matchup Intelligence
Hull City
NewcastleThe model sees this close: Hull City 40%, draw 27%, Newcastle 33%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.
Hull City carry the heavier absence: 11.5% of their squad weight against Newcastle's 9.6%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Hull City 5th in the league, Newcastle 16th of 20.
Expected shapes: Hull City 5-4-1, Newcastle 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and discipline (10th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (11th) and creativity (13th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups