Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
NewcastleThe model sees this close: Aston Villa 40%, draw 27%, Newcastle 33%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.1.
Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 17.9% of their squad weight against Aston Villa's 9.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Aston Villa 20th in the league, Newcastle 14th of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Newcastle 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and creativity (18th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and ball recovery (14th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups