Matchup Intelligence
Sunderland
NewcastleThe model favours Sunderland at 69%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (12%), from expected goals of 2.2 to 0.8.
Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 51%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 17.9% of their squad weight against Sunderland's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Sunderland 4th in the league, Newcastle 14th of 20.
Expected shapes: Sunderland 4-2-3-1, Newcastle 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and ball recovery (14th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups