Matchup Intelligence
Nott'm Forest
NewcastleThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 64%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (11%), from expected goals of 2.1 to 0.9.
Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%.
Both sides are missing a similar share: 10.3% and 9.6% of their squad weight. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Nott'm Forest 10th in the league, Newcastle 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1, Newcastle 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (8th) and creativity (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (11th) and creativity (13th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups