Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
NewcastleThe model favours Leeds at 68%.
The single most likely score is 2-0 (10%), from expected goals of 2.3 to 1.0.
Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 56%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 17.9% of their squad weight against Leeds's 8.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Leeds 3rd in the league, Newcastle 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Newcastle 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and discipline (3rd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and ball recovery (14th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups