Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
NewcastleThe model favours Fulham at 68%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.8 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 69%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 17.9% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Fulham 5th in the league, Newcastle 17th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Newcastle 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (7th) and ball recovery (14th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups