Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
Man UtdThe model favours Man Utd at 63%.
The single most likely score is 2-3 (6%), from expected goals of 2.1 to 3.4.
Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 84%.
Man Utd carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Fulham 15th in the league, Man Utd 3rd of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Man Utd 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (1st) and creativity (1st); weakest on defensive solidity, 7th of 20.
Predicted Lineups