Matchup Intelligence
Arsenal
Man UtdThe model favours Arsenal at 71%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (17%), from expected goals of 1.9 to 0.5.
Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 33%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 19.1% of their squad weight against Man Utd's 11.6%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Arsenal 2nd in the league, Man Utd 7th of 20.
Expected shapes: Arsenal 4-2-3-1, Man Utd 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (4th) and defensive solidity (2nd); weakest on ball recovery, 10th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (1st) and creativity (1st); weakest on defensive solidity, 7th of 20.
Predicted Lineups