Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
Man CityThe model favours Man City at 64%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (10%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 2.2.
Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 58%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Man City's 9.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Bournemouth 5th in the league, Man City 17th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Man City 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (2nd) and attacking threat (5th); weakest on ball recovery, 17th of 20.
Predicted Lineups