Matchup Intelligence
Nott'm Forest
Man CityThe model favours Nott'm Forest at 45%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.
Nott'm Forest carry the heavier absence: 4.6% of their squad weight against Man City's 2.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Nott'm Forest 4th in the league, Man City 20th of 20.
Expected shapes: Nott'm Forest 3-4-2-1, Man City 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on ball recovery (4th) and creativity (10th); weakest on defensive solidity, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (2nd) and attacking threat (3rd); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups