Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
Man CityThe model favours Man City at 68%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (8%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 2.9.
Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 70%.
Man City carry the heavier absence: 9.5% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Fulham 15th in the league, Man City 3rd of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Man City 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (2nd) and attacking threat (5th); weakest on ball recovery, 17th of 20.
Predicted Lineups