Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
Man CityThe model sees this close: Fulham 37%, draw 22%, Man City 42%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (9%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.
Man City carry the heavier absence: 17.1% of their squad weight against Fulham's 6.4%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Fulham 19th in the league, Man City 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Man City 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (3rd); weakest on discipline, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (2nd) and attacking threat (5th); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Predicted Lineups