Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
LiverpoolThe model sees this close: Fulham 40%, draw 19%, Liverpool 42%.
The single most likely score is 2-2 (7%), from expected goals of 2.4 to 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 82%.
Liverpool carry the heavier absence: 20.2% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Fulham 10th in the league, Liverpool 6th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Liverpool 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (6th) and ball recovery (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups