Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
LiverpoolThe model sees this close: Fulham 36%, draw 24%, Liverpool 40%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.
Liverpool carry the heavier absence: 17.9% of their squad weight against Fulham's 6.4%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Fulham 1st in the league, Liverpool 5th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Liverpool 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (3rd); weakest on discipline, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and defensive solidity (5th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups