Matchup Intelligence
Everton
LeedsThe model sees this close: Everton 45%, draw 24%, Leeds 31%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.
Leeds carry the heavier absence: 7.5% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Everton 1st in the league, Leeds 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Leeds 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (3rd) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups