Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
LeedsThe model sees this close: Bournemouth 43%, draw 23%, Leeds 34%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Leeds's 8.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Bournemouth 5th in the league, Leeds 18th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Leeds 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and ball recovery (5th); weakest on creativity, 13th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and discipline (3rd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups