Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
LeedsThe model sees this close: Ipswich Town 39%, draw 21%, Leeds 40%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (8%), from expected goals of 1.9 to 2.0.
Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%.
Leeds carry the heavier absence: 8.9% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Ipswich Town 19th in the league, Leeds 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Leeds 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and discipline (3rd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups