Matchup Intelligence
Aston Villa
LeedsThe model sees this close: Aston Villa 33%, draw 25%, Leeds 42%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.5.
Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.
Aston Villa carry the heavier absence: 21.1% of their squad weight against Leeds's 7.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Aston Villa 16th in the league, Leeds 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Aston Villa 4-2-3-1, Leeds 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (5th) and creativity (16th); weakest on ball recovery, 19th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (3rd) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups