Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
LeedsThe model favours Leeds at 52%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.
Leeds carry the heavier absence: 8.9% of their squad weight against Spurs's 5.1%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Spurs 7th in the league, Leeds 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Leeds 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and discipline (3rd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups