Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
LeedsThe model sees this close: Spurs 34%, draw 27%, Leeds 39%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.2 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 28.5% of their squad weight against Leeds's 7.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Spurs 8th in the league, Leeds 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Leeds 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and creativity (8th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (3rd) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups