Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
LeedsThe model favours Leeds at 46%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 9.6% of their squad weight against Leeds's 7.5%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Newcastle 20th in the league, Leeds 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Leeds 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (11th) and creativity (13th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (3rd) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups