Matchup Intelligence
Fulham
LeedsThe model sees this close: Fulham 45%, draw 20%, Leeds 35%.
The single most likely score is 2-2 (7%), from expected goals of 2.3 to 2.0.
Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 78%.
Leeds carry the heavier absence: 8.9% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Fulham 5th in the league, Leeds 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Fulham 4-2-3-1, Leeds 3-4-2-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and discipline (3rd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups