Matchup Intelligence
Everton
FulhamThe model favours Everton at 48%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (8%), from expected goals of 2.3 to 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 76%.
Everton carry the heavier absence: 4.0% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Everton 1st in the league, Fulham 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups