Matchup Intelligence
Everton
FulhamThe model sees this close: Everton 45%, draw 23%, Fulham 32%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.
Fulham carry the heavier absence: 6.4% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Everton 2nd in the league, Fulham 19th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (3rd); weakest on discipline, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups