Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
FulhamThe model sees this close: Crystal Palace 44%, draw 18%, Fulham 38%.
The single most likely score is 2-2 (6%), from expected goals of 2.7 to 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 86%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 10.5% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Crystal Palace 17th in the league, Fulham 6th of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (3rd) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups