Matchup Intelligence
Crystal Palace
FulhamThe model favours Fulham at 54%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (9%), from expected goals of 1.5 to 2.3.
Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 70%.
Crystal Palace carry the heavier absence: 16.5% of their squad weight against Fulham's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Crystal Palace 18th in the league, Fulham 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Crystal Palace 3-4-2-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on discipline (2nd) and ball recovery (8th); weakest on defensive solidity, 18th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (4th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups