Matchup Intelligence
Chelsea
FulhamThe model sees this close: Chelsea 43%, draw 23%, Fulham 34%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.8 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.
Chelsea carry the heavier absence: 16.6% of their squad weight against Fulham's 6.4%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Chelsea 5th in the league, Fulham 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Chelsea 3-4-2-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on attacking threat (2nd) and creativity (7th); weakest on discipline, 16th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (3rd); weakest on discipline, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups