Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
FulhamThe model favours Bournemouth at 56%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 1.2.
Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%.
Bournemouth carry the heavier absence: 8.0% of their squad weight against Fulham's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Bournemouth 1st in the league, Fulham 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and defensive solidity (4th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (4th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups