Matchup Intelligence
Hull City
FulhamThe model favours Fulham at 48%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.
Hull City carry the heavier absence: 4.8% of their squad weight against Fulham's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Hull City 20th in the league, Fulham 4th of 20.
Expected shapes: Hull City 5-4-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 5-4-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (8th) and ball recovery (12th); weakest on creativity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (4th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups