Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
FulhamThe model favours Fulham at 50%.
The single most likely score is 1-2 (9%), from expected goals of 1.6 to 2.1.
Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 71%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 5.1% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Spurs 11th in the league, Fulham 5th of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups