Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
FulhamThe model sees this close: Spurs 34%, draw 26%, Fulham 40%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (12%), from expected goals of 1.3 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 28.5% of their squad weight against Fulham's 6.4%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Spurs 12th in the league, Fulham 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and creativity (8th); weakest on defensive solidity, 12th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (3rd); weakest on discipline, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups