Matchup Intelligence
Newcastle
FulhamThe model favours Fulham at 48%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (10%), from expected goals of 1.4 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.
Newcastle carry the heavier absence: 9.6% of their squad weight against Fulham's 6.4%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Newcastle 16th in the league, Fulham 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Newcastle 4-2-3-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (11th) and creativity (13th); weakest on discipline, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (3rd); weakest on discipline, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups