Matchup Intelligence
Man Utd
FulhamThe model favours Man Utd at 83%.
The single most likely score is 4-1 (6%), from expected goals of 4.4 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 94%, both teams to score 79%.
Man Utd carry the heavier absence: 11.6% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Man Utd 3rd in the league, Fulham 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Man Utd 4-2-3-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (1st) and creativity (1st); weakest on defensive solidity, 7th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups