Matchup Intelligence
Man City
FulhamThe model favours Man City at 52%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (9%), from expected goals of 2.0 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.
Man City carry the heavier absence: 2.9% of their squad weight against Fulham's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Man City 2nd in the league, Fulham 18th of 20.
Expected shapes: Man City 4-2-3-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (2nd) and attacking threat (3rd); weakest on ball recovery, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (4th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups