Matchup Intelligence
Man City
FulhamThe model favours Man City at 85%.
The single most likely score is 3-1 (8%), from expected goals of 3.7 to 1.0.
Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 63%.
Man City carry the heavier absence: 9.5% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Man City 3rd in the league, Fulham 15th of 20.
Expected shapes: Man City 4-2-3-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (2nd) and attacking threat (5th); weakest on ball recovery, 17th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups