Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
FulhamThe model favours Leeds at 56%.
The single most likely score is 2-1 (8%), from expected goals of 2.6 to 1.8.
Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 77%.
Leeds carry the heavier absence: 8.9% of their squad weight against Fulham's 2.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Leeds 19th in the league, Fulham 5th of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (2nd) and discipline (3rd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on creativity (5th) and attacking threat (6th); weakest on discipline, 15th of 20.
Predicted Lineups