Matchup Intelligence
Leeds
FulhamThe model sees this close: Leeds 43%, draw 24%, Fulham 34%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (11%), from expected goals of 1.7 to 1.4.
Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.
Leeds carry the heavier absence: 7.5% of their squad weight against Fulham's 6.4%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on creativity: Leeds 19th in the league, Fulham 3rd of 20.
Expected shapes: Leeds 3-4-2-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 3-4-2-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (3rd) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (3rd); weakest on discipline, 19th of 20.
Predicted Lineups