Matchup Intelligence
Arsenal
FulhamThe model favours Arsenal at 61%.
The single most likely score is 1-0 (12%), from expected goals of 1.9 to 0.8.
Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 49%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 4.8% of their squad weight against Fulham's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on discipline: Arsenal 2nd in the league, Fulham 18th of 20.
Expected shapes: Arsenal 4-2-3-1, Fulham 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (1st) and defensive solidity (1st); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on defensive solidity (1st) and creativity (4th); weakest on discipline, 18th of 20.
Predicted Lineups