Matchup Intelligence
Everton
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 71%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (22%), from expected goals of 0.3 to 1.7.
Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 24%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 19.1% of their squad weight against Everton's 4.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Everton 1st in the league, Arsenal 10th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (1st); weakest on creativity, 9th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (4th) and defensive solidity (2nd); weakest on ball recovery, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups