Matchup Intelligence
Everton
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 53%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (13%), from expected goals of 0.9 to 1.6.
Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 15.7% of their squad weight against Everton's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Everton 1st in the league, Arsenal 14th of 20.
Expected shapes: Everton 4-2-3-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (1st) and discipline (2nd); weakest on creativity, 11th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (3rd) and defensive solidity (3rd); weakest on ball recovery, 14th of 20.
Predicted Lineups