Matchup Intelligence
Bournemouth
ArsenalThe model sees this close: Bournemouth 31%, draw 27%, Arsenal 42%.
The single most likely score is 1-1 (13%), from expected goals of 1.1 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 15.7% of their squad weight against Bournemouth's 11.7%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on ball recovery: Bournemouth 2nd in the league, Arsenal 14th of 20.
Expected shapes: Bournemouth 4-2-3-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (2nd) and attacking threat (8th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (3rd) and defensive solidity (3rd); weakest on ball recovery, 14th of 20.
Predicted Lineups