Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 67%.
The single most likely score is 0-2 (10%), from expected goals of 0.9 to 2.3.
Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 15.7% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 4.9%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Ipswich Town 20th in the league, Arsenal 3rd of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (6th); weakest on defensive solidity, 20th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (3rd) and defensive solidity (3rd); weakest on ball recovery, 14th of 20.
Predicted Lineups