Matchup Intelligence
Ipswich Town
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 79%.
The single most likely score is 0-2 (18%), from expected goals of 0.4 to 2.2.
Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 29%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 19.1% of their squad weight against Ipswich Town's 0.0%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Ipswich Town 19th in the league, Arsenal 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Ipswich Town 4-2-3-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on discipline (1st) and ball recovery (9th); weakest on defensive solidity, 19th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (4th) and defensive solidity (2nd); weakest on ball recovery, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups