Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 79%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (22%), from expected goals of 0.2 to 1.9.
Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 18%.
Arsenal carry the heavier absence: 19.1% of their squad weight against Spurs's 5.1%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on defensive solidity: Spurs 7th in the league, Arsenal 2nd of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (11th) and creativity (11th); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (4th) and defensive solidity (2nd); weakest on ball recovery, 10th of 20.
Predicted Lineups