Matchup Intelligence
Spurs
ArsenalThe model favours Arsenal at 46%.
The single most likely score is 0-1 (16%), from expected goals of 0.8 to 1.3.
Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 41%.
Spurs carry the heavier absence: 7.3% of their squad weight against Arsenal's 4.8%. The probabilities above do not price this yet.
Their identities part on attacking threat: Spurs 11th in the league, Arsenal 1st of 20.
Expected shapes: Spurs 4-2-3-1, Arsenal 4-2-3-1.
Probabilities come from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model over attack and defence strength plus home advantage. These sentences are rules over those numbers and claim nothing the model does not.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on ball recovery (5th) and defensive solidity (6th); weakest on discipline, 10th of 20.
Mostly 4-2-3-1. Strongest on attacking threat (1st) and defensive solidity (1st); weakest on ball recovery, 13th of 20.
Predicted Lineups